Best Case Scenario

With the NFL Draft less than 24 hours away, it is time to take a look at the best-case scenarios for each of the running backs projected to go in the first-round. Keep in mind these are the best-case reasonable projections, so each player will go to a team close to where the established draft experts have him going in their mocks. Also, I’m not looking for the highest point a player could go. I don’t care if his best-case fantasy landing spot is the result of him falling a few spots; let his accountant worry about that.

Darren McFadden, Arkansas – New York Jets – The Jets feature two things that make them a prime spot for McFadden, an improving offensive line and Thomas Jones. The latter is coming off a season which saw him score only one rushing touchdown and average 3.6 yards per carry. Jones would likely split carries with Darren if he ends up in Gotham City, but that beats landing in St. Louis or Kansas City and having to share time with Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson. Ending up in Oakland might result in more carries for McFadden, but I wouldn’t wish having to run behind that offensive line on even my worst enemy.

Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois– Detroit Lions – Mendenhall would get a chance to start right away in Motown if he could beat out Tatum Bell, which wouldn’t be too difficult a task. And even if Tatum manages to hold onto the starting job in training camp, it would only be a matter of weeks until Bell cracks. The Lions don’t have much of an offensive line, but landing in Detroit would give Rashard a chance at 200 carries as a rookie.

Jonathan Stewart, Oregon– Arizona Cardinals – The end of the Edgerrin James era is coming in Arizona, and the team would be very wise to select a running back to join their stable of young offensive talent. Waiting until the second round to pick up a back may be their best move, but grabbing Stewart here would be the best move for his fantasy value, especially long-term. His rookie year would be spent as Edge’s caddy, but he could be an explosive change-of-pace option in 2008 and would be the heir apparent in an offense that could yield lots of points over the next few seasons.

Felix Jones, Arkansas– Dallas Cowboys – There is no point in playing the “best case” game here because Jerry Jones is going to take Felix because they share both a last name and alma matter. This isn’t a bad thing, however, because Jones will see plenty of touches as the new Julius Jones in Dallas’ two-back offense. Felix should also be heavily involved in the passing game, which gives him a shot at fantasy relevance as a rookie even if he never cracks the starting lineup.

Wide Open

Jake Long. Matt Ryan. Chris Long.

At some positions in this year’s draft there are clear-cut No. 1 guys. And at others there has been so much movement you’d think the draft board was studying the Kama Sutra. One of those latter positions is wide receiver, due to a variety of interesting reasons.

During the college football season, it was widely believed that Limas Sweed of Texas was the top player in this year’s class. Sweed stands at almost 6-4 and is a polished route runner. However, he is now labeled as injury prone because of a wrist problem which has caused his value to fall. It has actually fallen too far, in my opinion, and whichever team ends up with him in late first round (or even early second) will be getting a potential No. 1 at a nice discount. The best case scenario for him might be to land with Dallas, where he could get his feet wet under T.O. and Patrick Crayton. And when TO moves on, Sweed and Crayton could constitute a formidable one-two punch themselves.

After Sweed’s injury caused his stock to sour, Cal’s DeSean Jackson briefly emerged as the top receiver. Not only did he have a big junior season in 2006, but he is also considered the best return man in the draft. However, those return skills won’t really help your fantasy team and Jackson’s production took a step back last season. Imagine him as a light version of Ted Ginn Jr., which means he’s probably on the three-year plan to fantasy relevance.

That led us to the Malcolm Kelly era of the draft. From around the combine until very recently, Kelly was the consensus top receiver and frequently prognosticated to join the Bills via the 11th pick of the draft. Kelly’s star began to lose its shine when he tested poorly at the combine and then again at the Oklahoma Pro Day. That has opened the door for Michigan State’s Devin Thomas, who has good size and is a playmaker with the ball, to become the popular pick to be the first wideout off the board on Saturday despite a college resume that isn’t exactly eye-popping.

Of course, the biggest reason why scouts haven’t been able to settle on which receiver is this year’s cream of the crop is because each one is tragically flawed. In the end, I expect this year’s draft class to look very much like the 2002 draft, which saw no wideout taken among the top 10 picks and only three go in the first round. And the biggest problem for fantasy owners is that they can’t really count on any of these guys to contribute much early in their careers, and especially in their rookie season.

Quote the Ravens

Believe it or not, I don’t have any say in where Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan lands in the draft. Shocking, isn’t it? But considering his talent and the needs of the teams in the top 10, it seems pretty clear to me that Ryan won’t make it past the Ravens with eighth selection. And if this fantasy owner has his druthers, that is exactly where he will end up. Let me explain.

First off, the Patriots, Rams, and Raiders have been disqualified from this discussion because they are already set at quarterback. I’m also dismissing the Chiefs because it appears they are comfortable going forward with the dynamic duo of Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard atop the depth chart. And the Jets are out because they appear dead set on having Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington battle in training camp, a decision which will likely allow them to select near the top of next year’s draft board as well.

Of the teams remaining in the top eight, Baltimore is the lesser of the evils because it is the only franchise which features both a proven running back and a 100-catch receiver already in place. Atlanta is a close second on this list because of the potential of players like Michael Tuner, Roddy White and even the seemingly forgotten Jerious Norwood; however, there are too many questions surrounding their offensive line and tight end position for me to declare them the optimal landing spot for any rookie quarterback. The Dolphins are in even worse shape, as Ronnie Brown still has to prove he’ll be healthy enough to be a factor in 2008, and unless Ted Ginn develops at a rapid pace, there is no receiver on the team that will strike fear in the heart of a major college team’s secondary.

Baltimore isn’t Ryan’s best destination just because the other options are atrocious, though. With Willis McGahee and his 1,200 rushing yards in the backfield to provide balance, Matt wouldn’t be counted on to immediately carry the offense on his broad, catholic-school educated shoulders. He will also be aided by the presence of veteran wideout Derrick Mason, who is not much of a fantasy option outside of PPR leagues but could be a big help to a rookie quarterback. Baltimore also has one of the top pass-catching tight ends (when healthy) in Todd Heap, which provides a nice security blanket for a young signal caller. The Ravens receiving corps also includes a couple of intriguing youngsters in Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams who could one day replace Mason atop the depth chart and grow up with Ryan if all goes according to plan.

Of course, even if Ryan ends up with the Ravens it will be a couple of years before fantasy owners can reasonable expect consistently solid numbers from him. But of the teams picking at the top of the draft, Baltimore offers the best chance of preventing him from having to endure a short learning curve.